Topic: magic bubble, will it pop?

I have been playing and collecting magic for some time. I have seen the rise and fall of many cards over the years, but with the pandemic, a lot of the cards have jumped up quite a bit. This overall isn't healthy for the game, but it is if you are looking for value. The question I have is this: When the world gets back to normal, will there be a market correction on the price of the cards, or will these prices stabilize and become the new normal?

Re: magic bubble, will it pop?

I expect there will be a market correction, but it will be very slow in both starting and progressing. All bets are off, however, if the US economy doesn't rebound well from the year of COVID and its government's propensity towards gridlock.

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Re: magic bubble, will it pop?

History lesson time.

Once upon a time, there was an industry where the powers that be caught on to the idea that there was money to be made by printing special editions of things.

Foils. Collector versions. Lots of versions of the same item. Premiums. Prices rose across the board, and normal versions of the same item actually started to become harder to find with the passage of time. Casual fans started to get crowded out by speculators over the next big shiny thing.

The problem was, because everything was special, nothing was special. Being special became mundane, and the mundane became worthless...and thus, harder to find. Stores wanted to carry the pricier versions of the new products, after all. More money to be made. And as long as the prices could rise, the companies would profit. So why not? Why not line their pockets with the dollars and ride the rollercoaster for as long as it would rise?

That industry was called Comic Books.

And it CRASHED HARD.

Barring some kind of course correction, I anticipate a hard crash sometime in 2022. I expect Hasbro to sell WotC, because their demands of "always make more money this quarter than the previous one" will not only not be met, but won't even come close. I expect Magic to take a few years to really recover from that. In the interim, I expect a lot of people to sell their collections and get out of the game while the getting's good. I hope to be in a position where I have money to take advantage of the steep decline ahead of us.

Re: magic bubble, will it pop?

Manic wrote:

History lesson time.

Once upon a time, there was an industry where the powers that be caught on to the idea that there was money to be made by printing special editions of things.

Foils. Collector versions. Lots of versions of the same item. Premiums. Prices rose across the board, and normal versions of the same item actually started to become harder to find with the passage of time. Casual fans started to get crowded out by speculators over the next big shiny thing.

The problem was, because everything was special, nothing was special. Being special became mundane, and the mundane became worthless...and thus, harder to find. Stores wanted to carry the pricier versions of the new products, after all. More money to be made. And as long as the prices could rise, the companies would profit. So why not? Why not line their pockets with the dollars and ride the rollercoaster for as long as it would rise?

That industry was called Comic Books.

And it CRASHED HARD.

Barring some kind of course correction, I anticipate a hard crash sometime in 2022. I expect Hasbro to sell WotC, because their demands of "always make more money this quarter than the previous one" will not only not be met, but won't even come close. I expect Magic to take a few years to really recover from that. In the interim, I expect a lot of people to sell their collections and get out of the game while the getting's good. I hope to be in a position where I have money to take advantage of the steep decline ahead of us.


Comic books isn’t a game played by millions of people around the world. Magic has also gotten much better regarding outreach for new players with things like Arena and now having it on smart phones/devices. Market will correct imo but it’s not a fair comparison to comic books.

Last edited by RC27 (Yesterday 15:42:45)

Re: magic bubble, will it pop?

Manic wrote:

History lesson time.
(...)

It's always wise to keep history lessons handy, and some of the things that happened with comic books (or sports cards) may work as cautionary tales in some cases. But we've seen this parallel drawn for many years now, and it's only fair to also include the critique to your argument, as usual. I agree with RC27 - it's not quite a valid comparison. Some reasons:

- As a game, Magic cards have bigger usability than comics.
- Additionally, synergies between cards keep happening. New cards and format reprints affect the value of previously printed cards. This does not happen with comics.
- The collectors segment in the comic books audience is arguably much larger (at least it certainly was in the 1990s) than the collectors segment in the Magic audience.   
- The collapse of the comic books market had a lot to do with distributors and an artificially inflated demand. Not really the current scenario with Magic. Also, WotC became an internal division in Hasbro. The chances of Hasbro selling WotC are frankly remote.

So we'll see bullish-bearish cycles and corrections in the secondary market, yes. Perhaps we'll see a progressive transfer of value from paper Magic to Arena (although I wouldn't bet hard on that). But a major crash? I very much doubt it. At least not for the same reasons that crashed the comic books market.

Disclaimer: My opinion is not a result of wishful thinking. The perspective of my MtG collection losing a lot of its value does not really bother me, and I would also take the chance to buy some things if the prices crashed hard.