PSA: TRADING BETWEEN US AND CANADA (Page 2 of 2)

1% would be your base risk, by your own numbers.

I see it as much more, but sure.

Man Vincent you really need to calm down.

I don't think anyone is saying the risk isn't higher when you go through multiple mail systems, but it doesn't go up as high as you think it does.

Let's say you have a 5% chance of your mail being lost in the US postal service, another 5% of it being lost in Canada, and just for argument's sake, another 5% in customs. So for each one you have a 95% chance of your mail making it through, and it has to make it through all three systems in one go. That means the chances of your mail getting lost is

1 - (.95 * .95 * .95) = 14.3%

Not great odds, and you'd probably never take this chance. But that implies that on average, 1 out of every 20 letters goes missing. You yourself only lost 3 out of 185 packages, which is only 1.5%. That makes the chances

1 - (.985 * .985 * .985) = 4.4%

Now, we can argue about the relative success rates of our various postal services but it sounds like that's not the point. You originally said that you don't like shipping without tracking, and I think people were questioning whether tracking a package changes the probabilities above.

This isn't necessarily true. Dishonest people will be dishonest regardless of whether or not you have delivery confirmation. For instance, the receiver can claim that he got your package but the most valuable cards are missing. DC does nothing for the sender in this situation. It's still your word against his.

This BTR is a good example: http://deckbox.org/forum/viewtopic.php?id=6815

Both traders are in the United States. I know that DC was not acquired in this case (only insurance number) but it would not have helped the sender prove his side anyway.

All I'm saying is don't let dishonest people deter you from trading with Canadians. Obviously the choice is ultimately yours, regardless of logic, but there is a risk with every trade, not just international trades.

^ same

I'm with Vincentarisen, and at this time I don't trade with anyone except fellow SA goons for exactly the reasons he argues above.

I had a huge problem recently with two separate Canadian traders. One was resolved nicely, but the other was a month-long debacle to recover a lot of lost value. The trader delayed in sending my cards in the first place, then they never materialized after weeks. Because of it being an international shipment, we had to wait longer than usual to agree that it was not going to show up.

There was a second attempt to send replacements, and once again no DC was added because of the expense. Once again, it failed to show up for weeks. Eventually I had to get the value via paypal. In the meantime, I had to modify a deck to run without the missing, expensive cards; didn't exactly have cash to replace a Sphinx's Revelation and a Hallowed Fountain on a whim when they were at their peak value. This trade was made 34 days before the tournament in question, plenty of time to receive them you would think.

Because of the lack of DC, I also have no evidence the cards were ever even sent, as I find it highly unlikely that two separate shipments disappeared back to back like this. With US traders, without fail if a trade goes missing the replacement gets DC to not only prove the sending of the replacement but to ensure its arrival.

LootPinata is also entirely correct, and the BIGGEST issue is that the USPS is horribly inconsistent. I have had over 130 successful trades on this site alone, and for cheap trades, a stamp on a PWE is sufficient for mailing. However, every so often a batch of envelopes gets kicked back to me for insufficient postage.

Someone mentioned going in person to mail every single trade, but that's just not an option for many of us. It's a 17 minute drive to my post office, and given how frequently I trade, that adds a significant hidden cost of gas and time to each trade if I had to do that. For trades requiring DC (read: anything over $15 at this point), I can now use PayPal and it's actually way cheaper than the post office ($1.69, and so far I've sent up to 6 oz of cards without the price going up, whereas 3 of the 5 employees at my post office try to make me send a bubble mailer as a package and tack on all sorts of fees to push the price up over 3 bucks for a 1 oz envelope, god forbid I ship 6 oz...that goes up to over $5). Note that PayPal's shipping system does NOT allow for international shipping labels to be created at this time unless they are generated in relation to a money transaction, like for an ebay item.

I guess the overall point is that DC is an absolute must for me given the issues I've had with traders in the past 2 months, and shipping to Canada makes that prohibitively expensive. Time is sometimes a factor in trades, where I can't get a card locally but need it in time for a tournament. Having to go down to the Post Office to fill out customs form and get a needlessly inflated price is also a big drawback that makes all but the most expensive trades not worth doing.

Aside from the problem cases I've had, I have nothing against Canadian traders....but the USPS makes it such a giant pain in the ass to trade with you that unfortunately it's not worth the added hassle. Maybe if the USPS gets its act together and tightens up their system, but I'm not holding my breath for that to happen this century.

Last edited by BaronVonVaderham (2013-03-13 22:13:39)

Thought you was referring to the BTR I was involved in LOL

You can read through that long winded BTR, but here is the short version...

I bought a Goblin deck from Deathtopia. I paid $435 for shipping, sleeves, box, and cards with a MP taiga signed by Richard Garfield.  I opened it up and 6 of the most expensive cards were missing.

It went to BTR and someone was going to eat the loss. I ended up taking that loss and the deck "as-is". Feedback was left as positive.

The confirmation (signature or tracking) is just a way of keeping informed of where the cards are in transit. This BTR was a different problem all together

I have been informed that deathtopia has changed his packaging due to this BTR. I am keeping mine the same since I feel it was a fluke. Shit happens and we both have progressed from it.

Lately I have been sending majority of my trades with DC so at least I have piece of mind. I do request from those I am trading with to do so on $20+ deals.

If you keep it honest and fair, it will be returned to you. I put that on my profile page and go by that. I do expect those who trade with me to do the same, at least for our trade.

Having a similar issue right now. A guy is claiming I sent him a damaged Steam Vents as NM. He admits it was well-packaged, and the card was DEFINITELY NM when I packed it up, I can even provide a witness to its condition who saw it the night before it went out. I had DC to prove it got there, but I have to somehow defend the condition of this card. Basically it's my feedback score against his, I guess, but maybe I need to add another laborious step to trading: taking scans of everything as they go out.

For all I know the other guy I was talking about was legit, but the circumstances just don't support his version of events, and his communication was intermittent and not very useful. Because of things like that, if I can't trade with DC on something valuable, I'd rather just not trade internationally except with people I trust.

This is part of what Deathtopia is doing. I personally think it is overkill, but unless you can take a PIC of it with a time/date stamp (non-scanner), it can still be disputed.

What I recommend on that is to take a scan of the card before sending it (and labeling it which deal it belongs to), and if it happens, have them send it back for comparison. If they are not willing to do this, most of the time, it is they are trying to pull a fast one.