Rector flash storm probabilities

https://stattrek.com/online-calculator/hypergeometric.aspx

None of these consider the dead scenarios where you draw the rector target, I have no idea how to do that math

Sample size of 15 seems like a logical approximation for bargain, deck size of 50

All possible ways to continue:
- Flash into illusions
- Flash into dream halls into kill
- Cast illusions
- Snt illusions
- Snt dream halls into kill
- cast dream halls into kill
- Cast dream halls to cast illusions into kill
- snt dream halls into cast illusions into kill
- any dream halls variation with tutors and card draw with bargain
- Freaking form of the dragon - lots of people can’t beat becoming a dragon - I should probably be doing more flash -> form all the time

Find each of 2nd flash, 2nd rector (no tutors)
0.666071429

Find flash or mystical or vamp
0.84678208

Find rector or vamp
0.772644377

find 2 IMS (no land drop, no artifact mana used)
0.76828354

Find 1 land as IMS
.26

Find 1 artifact IMS
.16

Find 1 land, 1 artifact IMS
.26 x .16 = 0.0416

Find 2 IMS (land drop, no artifact mana used, 13 lands in deck)
0.76828354 + 0.0416 = 0.80988354

Find both show and illusions as a continue:
0.085714286

Find 3 IMS (no land drop, no artifact mana used)
0.45083415

Find 3 IMS (land drop, no artifact mana used, 13 lands in deck) ** revisit based on revisiting above **


Find illusions

Find 4 IMS


—
Continue via illusions odds (aka get form and stop odds)

Main phase combo double flash
0.666071429 x 0.666071429 x 0.76828354 =
0.340849874917773

Main phase combo (pending land drop) double flash
0.666071429 x 0.666071429 x 0.999241927 =
0.359305762696625

End step combo - no need to find new mana, our 2 mana sources likely stay around (barring petal) double flash
0.84678208 x 0.772644377 =
0.654261412656364
—

math after flashing twice: Sample size of 20, 35 cards remaining (after the above essentially)

Find 3rd copy of either flash or rector after illusions from flash #2:
0.823529412

Find IMS 3&4 after flash #2 -> illusions
0.959914611

Find 4 more mana (IMS or chain of vapor all count for 1 mana)
0.667901203

Find tendrils (no tutors)
0.571428571

Find another black card (aka not bargain, not tendrils) - 50 cards in library, we draw 35 of them, need one of 7
0.999935576

Kill via 4 mana, tendrils after 2 flashes
0.667901203 * 0.571428571 = 0.381657829999471

Kill via 3rd flash -> dream halls, tendrils, black card
0.823529412 * 0.823529412 * 0.571428571 * 0.999935576 = 0.387518285439451

Any kill after 2 flashes = 0.381657829999471 + 0.387518285439451 = 0.769176115438922


Overall rough math (ignoring cantripping, ldv, snt, edge cases, therapy rector paths, 2nd flash is dream halls into kill, any form paths, land drop scenarios where ithe land is 3rd+ IMS) Holy crap this is complicated

Odds of killing with tendrils after 2 flashes
Main phase: 0.340849874917773 x 0.769176115438922 = 0.116178637231461
Main phase with land drop: 0.359305762696625 x 0.769176115438922 = 0.276369410805809
End Step: 0.654261412656364 x 0.769176115438922 = 0.503242251868604

This all may mean that will is needed, or that the trix kill is better. Possibly even that the ‘no ritual’ plan is inherently flawed and that’s why I’m losing